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The botched launch of the 2024-25 FAFSA has resulted in a significant decline in the number of applications for federal student aid.
This could lead to a sharp decline in college enrollment in fall 2024. The decline is so severe that it could lead to the closure of some universities.
Limited data on the number of applications submitted
The US Department of Education has No statistics published in relation to the number of applications submitted, excluding the rounded numbers contained in five press releases as shown in this table.
A total of 4.7 million FAFSAs have been filed as of February 28, 2024. 38% less than the same period last yearwhen approximately 7.6 million FAFSAs were filed.
Based on current trends, the number of FAFSAs filed by the end of August 2024 will be approximately 2.8 million lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 19%.
The U.S. Department of Education compared the 2024-25 FAFSA rollout to the 2016-17 FAFSA, the most recent year with a Jan. 1 start date. As of 2017-18, the FAFSA has a start date of October 1st.
While the 3.1 million 2024-25 FAFSAs filed through January 30, 2024 exceeds the number of 2016-17 FAFSAs filed through January 30, 2016, the number of 2024-25 FAFSAs filed in February decreased significantly.
A total of 4.7 million FAFSAs have been filed through February 28, 2024, compared to 5.5 million through the end of February 2016. By the end of August 2024, the number of FAFSAs filed will be 3.7 million lower than the number of FAFSAs filed at the end August 2016.
The number of FAFSAs filed fell from 103,000 per day in January 2024 to 55,000 per day in February 2024. The higher number in January was likely due to pent-up demand. The number of FAFSAs filed per day in February is roughly in line with the average daily total of previous years, at about 52,000 per day. However, the number of reports filed per day in the second half of February fell to about 47,000 per day, which is less than the same period last year or February 2016.
The decline in the total number of FAFSAs submitted suggests that the number of Federal Pell Grant recipients will be about the same as last year, even though the new Federal Pell Grant formula makes it easier for students to qualify for the scholarship .
Applicants may wait to submit the form until the FAFSA is fully operational. Low-income and first-generation college students tend to file the FAFSA later than middle- and high-income students.
This chart shows the total number of FAFSAs filed each month in 2024-25 and 2023-24. The blue line shows a forecast of the number of FAFSAs filed from March through the end of August if current trends continue.
Unless there is an increase in the number of FAFSAs filed after the FAFSA becomes fully operational, The number of FAFSAs for 2024-25 will never reach the number of FAFSAs filed in 2023-24.
Consequences of the FAFSA fiasco
The issues with the 2024-25 FAFSA and the “soft launch” period have discouraged many students from submitting the FAFSA.
- The delayed start of the 2024-25 FAFSA means applicants were able to begin filing the FAFSA three months late.
- Some applicants and contributors were unable to obtain the FSA IDs required to file the FAFSA or experienced other issues that prevented them from filing the FAFSA.
- Some of the workarounds offered by the US Department of Education do not work.
- Inadequate testing of the new FAFSA has led to significant implementation problems, particularly with the FSA ID.
- The Federal Student Aid Information Center (FSAIC) call center was overwhelmed, leaving some callers unable to reach a representative despite waiting on hold for hours. Dropped calls are common. Some callers receive voicemail messages asking them to call back later. Applicants and contributors have not received replies to email messages sent via the secure online message form.
Many students were unable to see their Student Aid Index (SAI) or saw an inaccurate SAI.
- The delayed decision to adjust the financial aid formula to reflect inflation of 18.3% from April 2020 to April 2023 contributed to the delays in implementing the 2024-25 FAFSA.
- Some students may not see the Student Aid Index (SAI) confirmation page, depending on whether they or their contributors completed their section of the FAFSA first. This means they cannot receive their SAI until they receive the FAFSA submission summary.
- Some students saw their SAIs before inflation adjustments were made.
The delayed processing of submitted FAFSAs caused other problems, such as:
- Delayed delivery of Institutional Student Information Records (ISIR) to colleges, resulting in delays in receipt of FAFSA submission summary by applicants. The US Department of Education says that ISIRs will be sent to colleges starting in the first half of March, which may mean that the first ISIRs will not be sent to colleges until the Ides of March (March 15) and it will take several weeks for this to happen Universities receive all their ISIRs.
- Applicants cannot make corrections to the FAFSA or add or delete colleges from the FAFSA until they receive the FAFSA submission summary.
- Due to the late receipt of ISIRs, universities will experience delays in sending financial aid offers to admitted students. Typically, financial aid award notifications are sent to students in early March. Now, in the most optimistic scenario, award notifications will not be sent to students until April.
- The universities are moving the decision day deadline by which students can accept offers of admission to May 15 or June 1.
Some students are more likely to be affected by FAFSA issues than others.
- FAFSA problems are more likely to affect low-income students, first-generation college students, rural students, and underrepresented minority students.
- Students in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Florida and Alaska are least likely to have filed the FAFSA.
- Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, California and Tennessee saw the largest declines in the number of FAFSAs filed.
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